In 2022, the Atlanta Falcons bucked expectations by adopting a run-heavy approach that allowed them to finish 7-10. They believe Desmond Ridder is a franchise quarterback.
With that in mind, let’s look at the best and worst-case scenarios for the Falcons in 2023. In fact, you will probably see the Falcons on various free football picks websites.
The Falcons entered the offseason as one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL, with an impressive young core of playmakers, the most cap room in the league, and the eighth overall pick.
Instead of focusing on acquiring a star quarterback like Lamar Jackson and building around him, the entire team rallied behind Ridder. After being drafted in the third round, the second-year quarterback appeared in four games in 2022, which was presumably enough for head coach Arthur Smith to feel “comfortable” with him moving forward.
Ridder did well in four starts, completing 63.5% of his attempts for 6.2 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. With Atlanta leading the NFL in running attempts and the fourth-best yards per carry, Ridder’s responsibility was to protect the ball and move the chains when needed. He stated that his “head was spinning” as a rookie, but he expects that after a year, the unit will be “explosive” in 2023.
At Online Sportsbooks, Atlanta’s victory total is 8.5, and they are -150 to miss the playoffs. It should help that the Falcons have the league’s second-easiest schedule.
If Ridder is even an average NFL starter, there’s reason to believe he’ll be correct. At best, the Falcons are correct in their belief that Ridder can improve his accuracy while also capitalizing on his big arm and tall, athletic playmakers. Tight end Kyle Pitts and wide out Drake London are drool-worthy, and Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller are underappreciated receivers.
The bar for this passing game to improve is low given Marcus Mariota was dreadful in the 13 games he started in 2022. Pitts virtually vanished through no fault of his own, and Atlanta only had three games with more than 171 passing yards in games Mariota played. Ridder may be good enough to help Atlanta win more games if he maintains the tempo he created in his last two appearances.
Bijan Robinson, probably the finest player in the whole 2023 NFL Draft class, has also been added. Robinson stated that he already trusts Smith to use him “the right way” by putting him at both receiver and running back. It’s unlikely, but Robinson has a shot to break Eric Dickerson’s rookie rushing record of 1,808 yards if he stays healthy and Atlanta continues to run the ball so often.
Atlanta’s defense is less certain what it will be. The offensive drained so much clock that the unit was just able to avoid disaster in 2022. They were bottom in the NFL, allowing a stunning 43.5% of drives to end in a touchdown.
They scrambled to bring in a slew of veterans to assist increase their floor. The additions of Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, and Bud Dupree to the defensive line will make things much tougher. The secondary added standout safety Jessie Bates III and is trying to get a good deal on Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes, and Tre Flowers.
Bates’ addition will help the secondary justify pushing safety Richie Grant closer to the line of scrimmage without exposing their corners, and the addition of A.J. Terrell for the entire season will aid the defense even more.
However, it will not be a good defense unless the pass rush significantly improves. The pass-rush win rate was 26th, and the run defense was 29th. Expect the latter to improve greatly, and the best case for the defense is for someone to emerge as a very strong sack artist from their rotation of Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie, and DeAngelo Malone.
Because the NFC South is such a weak division, Atlanta can contend for the title.
